Where our numbers come from.
Every figure on this site traces to a public source. When a number is an estimate, we show the full arithmetic, cite each input, flag every assumption, and report the conservative end. If we cannot source it, we do not print it.
The three rules we hold ourselves to
- Every published number gets a source and a year. US DOT, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the federal rules themselves (14 CFR), and PIRG analysis of that data.
- We never multiply a count by a ceiling. The $2,150 bumping and $4,700 baggage figures are federal maximums, not averages. Multiplying "2.7 million bags times $4,700" would wildly overstate reality, so we never do it.
- Estimates are labeled, conservative, and shown. Where we compute a figure, the math is below in full. We report the low end of a reasonable range, not the flattering one.
“$400M+ in refunds goes unclaimed every year”
The money the DOT has clawed back is only the part someone chased. This is a conservative estimate of the refunds owed on cancelled US flights that passengers never collect, because they took a voucher, accepted a rebooking they would otherwise have declined, or simply did not pursue it.
This is an order-of-magnitude estimate that scales with the behavioral share: about $358M at 10%, about $537M at 15%. We report the conservative floor. The DOT’s automatic-refund rule (effective October 28, 2024) is designed to shrink this pool over time, which is a good thing.
“An estimated $19M in refundable bag fees goes unclaimed”
When a checked bag is significantly delayed, your checked-bag fee is refundable under the DOT’s 2024 rule. Almost nobody knows this, so almost nobody claims it.
The only assumptions are the two behavioral shares, both set conservatively. Every other input is a government figure. For context, US airlines collected a record $7.27B in checked-bag fees in 2024 (BTS).
The numbers we refuse to use
An honest methodology is as much about what we leave out.
- The "$15 billion unclaimed" style figure. It is built on EU-style delay compensation (€250 to €600 per passenger) that does not exist for US flights. Applying it here invents an entitlement travelers do not have.
- Any count times a federal maximum. "2.7 million bags times $4,700" overstates reality by orders of magnitude. Most bags are worth a fraction of the cap.
- Global numbers dressed up as US ones. The widely-shared 33.4 million mishandled-bags figure is worldwide (SITA). The US number is about 2.7 million.
Primary sources
- US DOT Air Travel Consumer Report (ATCR), full-year 2024
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS): on-time, traffic, air fares, baggage
- 14 CFR Part 250 (bumping) and Part 254 (baggage): the current federal caps
- DOT automatic-refund rule, effective October 28, 2024
- 14 CFR § 259.7 (airline complaint-response obligations)
- PIRG, "The Plane Truth" (2025), analyzing DOT complaint data
Federal caps are inflation-adjusted periodically; the current bumping ($1,075 / $2,150) and baggage ($4,700) limits took effect January 22, 2025. Row30 is a filing service, not a law firm, and no one can guarantee an airline pays. Any dollar figures are federal maximums or clearly-labeled estimates, never a promise about your case.